Here’s how I think about it. An individual has a certain opinion for a candidate. If the opinion is high enough, the individual will attend a rally, will donate. If the opinion is too low, the probability of turning out to vote falls to a small number.
What we saw with Trump’s rallies and small-dollar donations was that there are a lot of people who really like him. This gives us a glimpse into Trump’s support distribution, relative to Crooked Hillary’s. She got no one at rallies, all her money was from rich people.
What this probably means is that the center of Trump’s support distribution is shifted strongly to the right of Clinton’s. Even if Trump’s distribution’s variance is twice Hillary’s, they guy’s been pull not non-irrelevant fractions of a county’s population at rallies for 18 months. 18,000 people in Grand Rapids last night, and that’s typical. We could play with the set up, the variance, how enthusiasm maps to vote probability, but you get my point. The rallies reveal the tail of the distribution, which gives you a hint as to where the statistical mode is.
The country hasn’t changed all that much from 2012. That’s still a good model for understanding the electorate. Romney didn’t get beaten that badly, and he was a low-energy candidate. Obama didn’t win all that handily and he’s a much better candidate than Hillary.
We’ll find out tonight.
Below are my two predictions for the election. In the first, we have a narrow Trump victory, based on the fact that the GOPe and Fox News finally got in line, and pushed Trump over the top in Wisconsin and Michigan by motivating lame-o conservatives.
The “Close” scenario
The next scenario I see happening is where word of John Podesta’s disturbing hobbies spread geometrically among the Mestizo and African-American communities and they vote Trump or don’t vote.
I have confidence Trump is going to get the most votes. However I’m not completely confident that the election won’t be tampered with to give Evil Hillary a close victory. I just don’t have enough knowledge. I don’t know how hard it is to rig the vote and I don’t know if the oligarchs think they can stop Trump later via their control of congress, the Fed or assassination.
I know I’m annoying some of you with these posts. But it has to be done. This is my platform and we have to get the word out and we have to get people to the polls. Roll the dice on straining your relationships if you have to, we need to make one last big push as the week end gets underway. We have to have those uncomfortable conversations, we have to let people know that we’re voting Trump or voting 3rd party. We have to push people away from Crooked Hillary and toward Trump. So go talk to you family about the election, get 3 people to vote for Trump and you’ll have done your duty as a citizen.
These Wikileaks really should have been released before Bernie was out, say just before the DNC.
I’m all for doing whatever it takes to win but I think Trump’s victory would have been more glorious if he’d beaten a solid progressive leftist money-grows-on-trees commie, on the issues, than beat a wretched old crooked hag, who probably has a candy house in the Schwarzwald, when her foul secrets are released in the closing days.
I’ll take the Trumpening anyway I can get it. I just know however that the meme will be pushed that the victory is tainted by the ignoble way that Crooked Hillary went down. Basically the idea will be that Trump didn’t ‘win’, Crooked Hillary lost. Sad.
Some of you may have heard about the homeless woman who began camping atop Trump’s Hollywood star after it had been repaired. You see, a rich leftist smashed the start to bits with a pick ax.
Well here’s how that woman was treated by the lovely people of Los Angeles